The series hosts a seminar every other week on current research topics. The seminar often features an invited guest speaker and occasionally local faculty members, students or others affiliated with the department. The usual time of the seminar is 3:30-4:30 pm on Fridays. Professors Tatiyana V Apanasovich (firstname.lastname@example.org), Qing Pan (email@example.com) and Emre Barut (firstname.lastname@example.org ) are the Seminar Series Coordinators.
Date: Friday, October 10, 3:30-4:30pm
Location: Duques Hall, Room 251
Title: Developing risk-based medical guidelines: "Equal management of equal risks"
Speaker: Dr. Hormuzd Katki, Biostatistics Branch, NCI/DCEG
Abstract: We present an intellectual framework for how to use medical evidence to develop risk-based medical guidelines that we have used in our experience in cancer screening. We propose that the key is connecting risk stratification under natural history of disease (without intervention) and “benefit stratification”: whether the risk stratification actually distinguishes people who have high benefit vs. low benefit from a screening intervention. To link risk stratification to benefit stratification, we propose the principle of “equal management of people at equal risk of disease”. When applicable, this principle leads to simplified and consistent management of people with different risk factors or test results leading to the same disease risk, people who might also have a similar benefit/harm profile. We demonstrate examples of this through (1) our involvement serving on the guidelines committee for the new cervical cancer screening guidelines incorporating HPV testing and (2) our proposal for targeting risk-based lung cancer screening. In the second half of this talk, we change gears to describing a novel dynamic joint model of HPV infection and cervical cancer risk that we have developed. We discuss the statistical challenges and counter-intuitive implications of this model for screening.