The series hosts a seminar every other week on current research topics. The seminar often features an invited guest speaker and occasionally local faculty members, students or others affiliated with the department. The usual time of the seminar is 3:30-4:30 pm on Fridays. Professors Tatiyana V Apanasovich (email@example.com), Qing Pan (firstname.lastname@example.org) and Emre Barut (email@example.com ) are the Seminar Series Coordinators.
Date: Friday, December 4th, 3:30-4:30pm
Location: Duques Hall, Room 251
Title: Repeated Out of Sample Fusion: An Application to Interval Estimation of Small Tail Probabilities in Food Safety
Speaker: Benjamin Kedem, Mathematics Department and Inst. for Systems Research, University of Maryland, College Park
Abstract: Often in food safety and bio-surveillance it is required to estimate the probabilities that a certain contaminant exceeds an unsafe high threshold. The probability in question is then very small. To estimate such a probability we need information about large values. However, in many cases the data do not contain information about exceedingly large contamination levels, which ostensibly renders the problem insolvable. A solution is suggested whereby more information about small tail probabilities is obtained by combining the real data repeatedly with external data. This method provides short yet reliable interval estimates based on moderately large samples. An illustration is provided in terms of lead exposure data.